BRICS / BRICS

India and Bangladesh are discussing avenues to facilitate the first ever visit of the Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to New Delhi.

While the conditions and the timing of the visit remains uncertain, what is certain is that Bangladesh would favour a bilateral meeting between Rahman and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi rather than the former visiting India for attending the BRICS Summit as the chair of the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative  for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation).

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Sources in New Delhi and Dhaka hint at positive developments in India-Bangladesh ties especially since the meeting of Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka Dinesh Trivedi and Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman that took place on August 10, five days after former Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina addressed a presser at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of South Asia in New Delhi.

A Dhaka-based source said that India has proposed to arrange a two-day visit towards mid or late August and also offered to host the Bangladesh PM at the BRICS Summit which is just a month away now.

Sources in India point out that the Indian PM’s diplomatic schedule is tightly packed in September with Modi expected to host several global leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian who are likely to travel to India for the Summit scheduled for September 12-13.

There has been a slight change in the tenor of Bangladeshi leaders as well.

Bangladesh’s state Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obaed Islam has commented that “India should make use of the opportunity when the heads of government of the two countries speak or bilateral discussions take place.”

She made the remarks while responding to questions from journalists about a possibility of the Bangladeshi PM Tarique Rahman visiting India could help ease tensions in relations between the two countries.

India nudges Bangladesh

While India has batted on the front foot by its deft handling of the Hasina issue- distancing itself from her comments made at the presser and also not doing anything to stop the event, sources say that the Rahman regime is alarmed about the possibility of Hasina's return to Bangladesh. 

In fact, a section of South Asia watchers suggest that with the August 5 presser of Sheikh Hasina, India has finally started using a bold strategy stepping out of its collaborative approach to nudge the Rahman regime whose foreign policy has repeatedly shown a pro-China approach ousting India from several strategic projects like the Mongla port and the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project in Bangladesh.

Ever since the meeting between Trivedi and Rahman and the former's subsequent meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 11, developments have shown that both New Delhi and Dhaka are preparing for modalities that can help make Rahman's visit to India a reality.

While some reports suggest that there is also a likelihood of a high-profile "bargain" that Bangladesh may expect from India, a particular news report has suggested that Bangladesh has made the extradition of Hasina to Bangladesh a precondition to a visit by Rahman to India.

Sources however point to the fact that either scenario makes one thing certain-relations between India and Bangladesh remain sour despite attempts from both sides to normalize ties.     

Consider this: Dhaka is in process of or has already dropped as many as 11 India-backed infrastructure ventures, reflecting growing political strains even as several flagship connectivity projects continue under a reduced Line of Credit framework.

"That the new Bangladesh PM ignored Indian PM Narendra Modi's invitation to visit India and instead chose Malaysia as the first country for making a foreign visit followed by China and the involvement of Beijing in a project that helps China get a vantage point in India's backyard is too serious to go missed by New Delhi," said an Indian diplomat.            

"Hasina's press conference marks the beginning of a new chapter in india-Bangladesh relations. India maintained strategic patience for the last two years. With today's PC, India practically goes on the front foot. Tarique Rahma was offered a red carpet welcome as early as he was elected in February, which he declined. Now he must come, if he at all, under Hasina's shadow if he goes on a confrontational mood, India will up the ante. That's the writing on the wall," columnist and researcher Pratim Ranjan Bose says on the India-Bangladesh ties.

However, while New Delhi did not stop the supply of diesel to Bangladesh during the West Asia crisis and helped Bangladesh at a time when the country had been facing an energy crisis that continues till date, there have been moments when India's stand towards Bangladesh has reflected the change in the dynamics between the two countries.

One such instance was the treatment meted out with the Bangladeshi PM's information and broadcasting advisor Zahed Ur Rahman who decided to return to Dhaka after he was subjected to questioning and had to wait for about two hours at New Delhi's IGI Airport in June when the security personnel at the airport found his name had been flagged on a security-related watchlist due to his anti-India comments.      

Asked about the Bangladeshi foreign minister Khalilur Rahman’s statement that he could not predict if the Bangladeshi PM will visit India, a highly-placed source in Delhi stated that New Delhi understands that there are “domestic compulsions” for the Bangladeshi regime to make such hardline statements.

“The hardline and anti-India Jamaat-e-Islami is the main opposition in Bangladesh and there are anti-India actors within the BNP too,” commented a top diplomat.

However, the diplomat pointed to Bangladesh's domestic conditions and expressed hope that they may force a change in the staunch approach that the country's leadership has shown towards India so far.

As it continues to reel under a major energy crisis due to disruptions in gas and fuel supplies, Bangladesh has been forced to announce austerity measures including closure of shopping malls, markets, cultural programmes and a variety of fairs by 8 pm.

Last week, the country's power minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood had commented that Dhaka had asked India for more diesel through the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline- the same avenue through which India had sent thousands of metric tonnes of diesel to Bangladesh under a 15-year agreement signed in 2018 through which India supplies 180,000 metric tonnes of diesel to the South Asian neighbour annually.

India's Ministry of External Affairs had on Friday commented that the ongoing arrangement with Bangladesh for supply of diesel continues.

 "In so far as the additional request that you mentioned is concerned, this will be examined keeping in mind our own requirement, refining capacity as also the diesel availability in our country," MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal had said while acknowledging receiving a request from Bangladesh for additional diesel.

Commentators in Bangladeshi press too have advised the country's BNP regime to undertake a pragmatic approach towards foreign policy rather than be swayed with emotions.

"There is no option to change the neighbour; but by enhancing its capabilities, Bangladesh can decide how to manage its relationship with that neighbour. Hence, foreign policy must be based on pragmatism and foresight, not emotions; and the objective of diplomacy must be to advance national interests with patience, skill, and confidence, not to create a clamour. The future of Bangladesh-India relations will ultimately be determined not by temporary tensions, but by the strength of a long-term state vision," Golam Rasul, Professor, department of Economics, International University of Business, Agriculture and Technology, Dhaka remarked in an editorial in leading Bangladeshi news platform Prothom Alo.

 

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