File Photo / IANS

For the past week, the Indian Army has been carrying out a major operation to pin down at least 30 to 35 terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir, and it is one of the toughest operations the force has launched in recent times owing to multiple factors.

For one, it is the freezing phase of Chillai Kalan, during which cold peaks across the Valley. Chillai Kalan begins on Dec. 21 and ends on Jan. 31.

An official said that from Jan. 31 onward, one could expect much more progress in the ongoing operation as the weather would be more conducive for the security forces.

While the weather is a major deterrent, security agencies have noticed a major shift that the 30 to 35 Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorists have made.

The notable shift the terror group has made this time around is the timing of their operation. During this phase, they normally lie low, but this time they are trying to carry out operations despite the weather not being helpful.

The terrorists who have spread across the Doda and Kishtwar belt are active, which is a change in pattern that security agencies have noticed.

Further, they have isolated themselves at higher altitudes, something they normally do not do.

Previously, during this phase, terrorists would normally take shelter in the homes of locals. They would also be given food and support by locals, but this time they have stayed away.

Officials say locals are refusing to help them following the Pahalgam attack, which explains why they have decided to isolate themselves.

An Intelligence Bureau official said there is no doubt the terrorists have taken a big risk, both logistically and health-wise. Operating at such high altitudes during this period puts them at risk of being eliminated easily by the security forces.

That the terrorists have decided to take that risk makes it important for agencies to be careful, as these terrorists are likely to attempt a low-scale attack, the official said.

Taking such a huge risk, knowing fully well that they can only mount a low-scale attack, is also a sign of desperation.

Operation Sindoor, carried out by the Indian armed forces to avenge the Pahalgam attack, has crippled the terror infrastructure to a large extent.

With infiltrations dropping to almost nil, Pakistan has decided to activate some of its existing terrorists in the Valley to carry out a strike.

An attack in Jammu and Kashmir, even if it were to be a low-scale one, is important in the context of recruitment.

Any attack, Pakistan believes, would raise the morale of existing cadres, while newer ones would want to join terror groups, officials say. Moreover, the terrorists are maintaining very little communication to avoid detection.

Further, these terrorists have decided to carry out operations in smaller groups so that the entire lot does not get eliminated at once, agencies have learned.

The rules of the game have changed for these terrorist groups. Usually, operations would stall entirely during this time owing to harsh weather. However, these groups have decided to indulge in acts of terror no matter what the weather is.

They are fully aware that they are incapable of mounting a large-scale attack during such times, but they are ready to take the risk, which once again is a sign of desperation.

This has also been a challenge for the security forces, as they have to remain on guard throughout the year.

The army has intensified its operations despite having to deal with harsh weather and treacherous terrain. It has also changed its strategy and taken a more proactive posture during the winter.

It has not reduced activities as it normally did in the past, but instead increased them. It has also set up snowbound bases to counter these terrorists.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah had told security forces to remain on a very high state of alert in Jammu and Kashmir, as terrorists would look to take advantage of snowfall while trying to cross over into India from Pakistan.

Indian agencies have said several launch pads have come up in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). However, terrorists are finding it difficult to infiltrate due to high security and constant vigil.