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Despite a backdrop of uncertainty from shifting immigration policies in the United States to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and a global economy shaped by trade frictions and policy unpredictability global travel continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience.

As someone who has witnessed the evolution of cross-border mobility since joining VFS Global in 2004, I can confidently say that the fundamentals driving international travel remain strong, even as the landscape becomes more complex.

The Enduring Growth of Global Mobility

VFS Global occupies a unique vantage point. As the world's largest visa and consular services outsourcing company, we work with 69 governments across 165 countries, operating approximately 3,971 visa and passport application centers worldwide. This expansive network provides us with real-time insights into travel patterns, sentiment, and demand across every major corridor.

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The numbers tell a compelling story. According to projections from the World Travel and Tourism Council and the United Nations, the global visa outsourcing industry is expected to reach approximately USD 3.0 billion by 2025, with forecasted growth rates ranging between 9.3% and over 13% CAGR through 2033. This reflects sustained momentum in travel worldwide, driven by forces that transcend temporary geopolitical headwinds.

Post-COVID, we've witnessed a marked transformation in how the middle-class approaches travel. What was once a once-a-year or once-every-two-years activity has evolved into something more frequent and essential. This trend is particularly evident in emerging markets in India, China, Asia, and Africa where outbound travel has surged. Students are studying abroad in greater numbers, and globalized trade and business have further fueled this demand.

Travel patterns vary significantly by region and purpose. In my current role overseeing the Americas a region that includes the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean, with operations in more than 30 countries I see distinct motivations across different corridors.

Travel between India and the United States, for example, is largely driven by business needs, education, and family connections. Other corridors may be influenced by medical tourism, seasonal vacation peaks, or specific cultural factors. In the broader Americas region, substantial diaspora populations add complexity to demand. Countries such as Jamaica, Panama, and Guyana each have more than a million citizens living in the United States, creating sustained demand for consular and travel-related services.

Within the United States, we've significantly expanded our presence. We began operations around 2006–2007, and today we operate 84 centers across 17 U.S. cities, representing approximately 29 different governments. Our partnership with the Government of India, which began in 2021, exemplifies this growth expanding from six locations to 17 centers to meet the needs of the growing Indian diaspora.

Addressing Policy Uncertainty

The question on many minds is whether recent policy shifts around H-1B visas, foreign students, and immigration in the United States will significantly impact demand. Based on what we're observing, we do not foresee any significant long-term impact. In the short term, there may be minor fluctuations. Students, for instance, may consider alternative destinations such as Europe, but this is unlikely to translate into sustained decline. Any drop in student intake in one academic cycle is best assessed against the next, as this demographic is naturally more sensitive to uncertainty due to their age and lower risk tolerance.

Corporate travel remains stable, supported by ongoing global trade and business expansion into new markets. Tourism continues to be resilient, and the United States will continue to attract visitors. Ultimately, every country has inherent costs of doing business whether through fees, taxes, or administrative structures and a model without such costs simply does not exist.

The Practical Realities of Visa Planning

This sustained rise in travel naturally increases the importance of timely visa planning. For destinations with high demand, travelers must prepare well in advance often at least three months before their intended travel date. 

Understanding these patterns is crucial. Across the calendar year, there are typically four to five major peak travel periods. August and September see elevated volumes due to the academic year start, with a large influx of student visa applications. May and June experience increased demand as travelers prepare for summer vacations in July. Early December becomes a peak period as people plan trips around the Christmas holidays.

Corporate travel follows its own rhythm, with the most activity in the first two quarters and the latter half of the year typically sees reduced business travel as companies assess performance and manage costs accordingly.

Large global events can dramatically influence demand as well. With the FIFA event scheduled in the United States next year, we anticipate millions of international visitors, many of whom will require visas, further intensifying demand.

Critical Mission of Supporting Governments

Our role has evolved significantly since we began in 2001, though our organizational culture has remained consistent rooted in entrepreneurship, service delivery, and strong client-relationship management. At its core, our business enables governments to deliver efficient services to citizens and travelers, whether visas, passports, or consular support.

With a few exceptions related to specific passport categories, visas remain a primary requirement for most cross-border travel. These visas come in various forms paper visas, visa stickers, e-visas, and visas on arrival. We support governments across all these formats based on their specific needs.

For countries requiring sticker visas, we manage the documentation and operational components of the process. For others, such as Brazil, Suriname, Thailand, and Indonesia, we facilitate end-to-end e-visas. Applicants can simply visit the dedicated VFS Global website, enter required information, and through seamless integration with government systems, obtain the e-visa needed for travel without visiting a physical office.

Looking Ahead and Beyond

As we navigate 2026 and beyond, I remain optimistic about the trajectory of global travel. Countries worldwide are actively adopting strategies to attract tourists, fully aware that tourism is a strong economic engine. The fundamental human desire to explore, connect, and experience different cultures transcends policy cycles and geopolitical tensions.

The visa outsourcing industry's projected growth reflects not just our own trajectory, but the broader reality that cross-border mobility is here to stay. As populations become more globally connected, as businesses expand across borders, and as individuals increasingly prioritize experiences and personal wellbeing, the need for efficient, reliable visa and consular services will only intensify.

Our commitment remains unchanged: to innovate, expand, and deliver the service excellence that both governments and travelers depend on; in an increasingly connected world.

 

 

The writer is the  Head of the Americas, VFS Global

(The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of  India Abroad.)