Narendra Modi and Donald Trump. / REUTERS

“At its core, the story of Mr Trump and Mr Modi is about two brash, populist leaders with big egos and authoritarian tendencies, and the web of localities that help keep both men in power. And it is also the tale of an American president with his eye on a Nobel Prize, running smack into the immovable third rail of Indian politics: the conflict with Pakistan,” reads a page 1 story in The Sunday New York Times.

The US-based Indian diaspora appears divided on the policies and programmes of Donald Trump. Many support Mr Trump for taking steps to “restore” order in a country that had gone “haywire” over a “shut eye” administration, leading to amplification of problems, including uncontrolled inflow of both illegal immigrants or aliens and drugs that have been wreaking havoc with the undisputed superpower of the world. Others opposed to the actions of Donald Trump II time feel agitated, holding that human values have been put on the threshold and those refusing to fall in line are being punished.

Headlined “The Striking Split Between Trump and Modi,” the page 1 story not only talks about the US President Donald Trump setting his eyes on the Nobel Peace Prize and crushing tariffs that infuriated India but also his saying - repeatedly, publicly, exuberantly that he had “solved” the military conflict between India and Pakistan, a dispute that dates back more than 75 years and is far deeper and more complicated than Mr Trump was making it out to be.

The front-page article by Mujib Mashal, Tyler Pager and Anupreeta Das, which continues on an inside page, reads: “The Indian leader bristled. He told Mr Trump that US involvement had nothing to do with the recent ceasefire. It had been settled directly between India and Pakistan.

Mr Trump largely brushed off Mr Modi’s comments - and Mr Modi’s refusal to engage on the Nobel - has played an outsize role in the souring relationship between the two leaders, whose once close ties go back to Mr Trump’s first term.

The dispute has played out against the backdrop of trade talks of immense importance to India and the United States, and the fallout risks pushing India closer to American adversaries in Beijing and Moscow by referring to Mr Modi’s visit to China, where he was scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

The article says that just weeks after the June phone call, and with trade talks dragging on, Mr Trump startled India by announcing that imports from the country would be subjected to a tariff of 25 percent. And on Wednesday, he slapped India with an additional 25 percent tariff for buying Russian oil, adding up to a crushing 50 percent.

Mr Modi, who once called Mr Trump “a true friend”, was officially on the outs. After telling Mr Modi that he would travel to India later this year for the Quad summit, Mr Trump no longer has plans to visit India in the fall.

In India, reads the article, Mr Trump is now seen in some quarters as a source of national humiliation. A couple of weeks ago, a giant Trump effigy was paraded around a festival in Maharashtra with signs declaring him a backstabber. The blows from the United States have been so intense that one Indian official described them as “gundagardi”, straight-up bullying or thuggery.

The two men have not spoken since the June 17 phone call.

At its core, the story of Mr Trump and Mr Modi is about two brash, populist leaders with big egos and authoritarian tendencies, and the web of loyalties that help keep both men in power. And now it is the tale of an American president with his eyes on a Nobel Prize, running smack into the immovable third rail of Indian politics: the conflict with Pakistan.

Though the story did not talk about ignoring Narendra Modi for the official swearing in of Donald Trump, indications of relations going sour had started long time before. Among his first few “tariff” salvos, Donald Trump indicated that he would levy 100 percent on BRICS nations in case they contemplated their own currency on the lines of Euro.

Another point of tension has been the power of the anti-immigrant sentiments within Mr Trump’s base. Indian officials believed early on that they could find common ground with the American right-wing movement, but they were caught off guard by the rift among Mr Trump’s supporters over H1-B visas, with much of the attention directed at Indians, who make up the largest holders of such visas.

Indian students also make up one out of every four foreign students in the United States, so Mr Trump’s crackdown on student visas took India by surprise.

It did not end there. The first planeloads of deportees, mostly shackled, arrived in India in general and Amritsar, the historic Punjab city, in particular, to the great dismay of the Indian political leadership. It caused an uproar against Mr Modi, whose claims of close friendship with Mr Trump were shattered. Incidentally, the timing of the American Air Force planes carrying Indian deportees coincided with Mr Modi’s visit to Washington.

India, says the New York article, is now alone with Brazil, led by a president who has antagonised Mr Trump directly, in being subject to 50 percent tariffs, higher than any other country. (Pakistan came away with 19 percent.)

Have gifts and compliments played any role in taking the “friendship” to rock?

The story says that during Mr Trump’s first term, he attended the large “Howdy Modi” rally of the Indian diaspora in Texas. Months later, the American president visited Mr Modi’s home state of Gujarat for an event branded “Namaste Trump”.

Mr Modi greeted him with a hug at the airport and then celebrated Mr Trump with music, dancers, and more than 100,000 cheering attendees.

In Mr Trump’s second term, foreign leaders have found success by tending to his ego with compliments and gifts. The British prime minister arrived at White House with a letter from Prince Charles. The Finnish president bonded with Mr Trump on the golf course. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, whom Mr Trump once berated in public, showed up at the White House and thanked him in front of the cameras.

Did Modi decline an invitation from Mr Trump to Washington on his way back from Alberta in Canada after the G7 summit?

The report says that by the time Mr Trump and Mr Modi got on the phone in June (probably the last time), there might have been an opportunity to mend ties and refocus on the ongoing trade negotiations.

But that did not happen.

It says that the June call, which lasted 35 minutes, took place as Mr Trump flew back to Washington on Air Force One after he left early from the Group of 7 industrialised countries meeting in Canada, which Mr Modi also attended. Incidentally, Canada, greatly “tarrified” is another all-time US ally now wondering how to move ahead with its big brother and neighbour.

Mr Modi declined an invitation from Mr Trump to stop by Washington before he flew home. His officials were scandalised that Mr Trump might try to force their leader into a handshake with the Pakistan army chief, who had also been invited to the White House for lunch around the same time. It was another clear sign, the NY report quoting an Indian official says, that Mr Trump cared little for the complexity of their issue or the sensitivities and history around it.

Is PM Modi turning “cosy” to China an attempt to revive” Hindu-Chini Bhai Bhai” or to tell Mr Trump, “We do not care”? Inference is all yours to draw.

 

This column was first published in the Probing Eye.

This author is a Toronto-based award-winning independent journalist.

(The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of New India Abroad)