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Raman has 64% odds of winning LA mayoral race: Report
Raman has emerged as a leading challenger to the incumbent with a campaign centered on housing and homelessness.
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Malvika Choudhary - Fri, 01, May 2026
- 17:12 EDT
- 26
Nithya Raman / Image : X@Nithya Raman
Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman has reached a 64 percent probability of winning the Los Angeles mayoral race, according to data from prediction market platform Kalshi.
The platform described the figure as a “new all-time high,” placing Raman ahead of incumbent mayor Karen Bass at 23 percent and media personality Spencer Pratt at 19 percent.
Also Read: Nithya Raman pitches plan to revive LA film jobs
Despite the prediction market lead, public polling presents a mixed picture.
A Loyola Marymount University survey earlier this year placed Raman at 33 percent, ahead of Bass at 17 percent. However, a separate UCLA Luskin poll found 40 percent of voters undecided, with Bass at 25 percent, Pratt at 11 percent, and Raman at 9 percent.
The divergence highlights uncertainty in a crowded, nonpartisan primary field.
Campaign finance data shows a tight contest among leading candidates.
Pratt led a recent reporting period with about $539,000 raised, followed closely by Raman, who reported about $531,000. Bass trailed in that cycle but continues to hold a significantly larger overall campaign war chest, with millions raised across the race.
Raman’s donor base includes support from the entertainment industry, with contributions from filmmakers, actors, and media executives.
Raman, an urban planner, entered the race earlier this year, positioning herself as a challenger to Bass. Her campaign has focused on housing affordability, homelessness, and governance reform.
She has criticized existing homelessness strategies, including Bass’s “Inside Safe” program, calling for changes in spending and approach.
Raman has secured backing from advocacy groups including Streets For All, a transportation and urban policy organization that endorsed her candidacy. Her political rise has also been supported by progressive networks and volunteer-driven organizing.
Bass, who has served as mayor since 2022, is seeking re-election.Pratt, running as an independent, has drawn attention for his fundraising and campaign visibility despite having no prior political experience.
The Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2. If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff will take place on November 3.
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