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International applications from India to U.S. colleges and universities fell 14 percent for the 2026-27 application cycle, according to a new report.

The decline was highlighted in a preliminary analysis by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International, which projects that the U.S. could have up to 111,000 fewer international students in Fall 2026, resulting in as much as $3.4 billion in lost economic contributions and nearly 40,000 fewer jobs.

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The NAFSA analysis identifies India and China as the two largest international student-sending countries and points to limited or delayed visa appointments in both countries as one factor affecting students seeking to study in the U.S.

The decline in Indian applications comes amid a broader slowdown in international demand. International submissions through the Common App fell 9 percent overall for the 2026-27 cycle. 

The report also cites data from the Association of American Universities Data Exchange showing that international applications to U.S. doctoral programs declined 21 percent for Fall 2026. International admissions fell 17 percent, while overall doctoral program admissions declined 15 percent amid uncertainty over federal research funding.

Nearly two-thirds of U.S. institutions responding to the Institute of International Education's Spring 2026 Snapshot said they expect international enrollment to decline further in 2026-27. Some institutions are projecting graduate enrollment declines of as much as 40 percent.

Visa, policy pressures

Visa processing is a major concern for international students.

The report cites limited or delayed appointments for students at U.S. consulates in India, China and across Europe, with some requests for expedited appointments denied. The analysis also points to an expanded U.S. travel ban. 

A Dec. 16, 2025, executive order established restrictions affecting nationals of 39 countries, with no exceptions for F-1 students or J exchange visitors. The countries covered include Iran and Nigeria, both of which send students to U.S. institutions.

The report also highlights uncertainty surrounding changes to immigration rules for international students.

In August 2025, the Department of Homeland Security proposed eliminating the longstanding duration-of-status (D/S) framework for F students and J exchange visitors. On July 17, 2026, DHS published a final rule replacing D/S with a fixed Admit-Until-Date, effective Sept. 15.

The change could create additional planning uncertainty for students pursuing longer degree programs or those whose academic and career plans change during their studies.

NAFSA also cited continued uncertainty over potential changes to Optional Practical Training, which allows eligible F-1 students to gain practical work experience in the U.S. The organization said OPT is an important tool for addressing labor shortages, particularly in STEM fields.

Economic Impact

The economic impact of the projected enrollment decline of international students would be spread across the country.

The report finds that California faces the largest projected loss at $499.6 million, followed by New York at $470.3 million. Massachusetts and Michigan are each projected to lose $284 million, while Texas could lose $199.1 million and Illinois $191.6 million.

Other states facing substantial projected losses include Pennsylvania at $164.2 million, Florida at $118.9 million, Ohio at $102.3 million. 

NAFSA is urging the administration to prioritize visa interviews and processing for F and M students and J exchange visitors, exempt F and M students and J exchange visitors from the current travel ban while maintaining required background checks and vetting, and preserve OPT for F-1 students.

The organization is also calling on Congress to restore the D/S policy and pass the Keep STEM Talent Act and Keep Innovators in America Act, along with provisions in the Dignity Act that would extend dual intent and create a pathway to a green card for F-1 students.

The projections are based on responses from U.S. higher education institutions to the IIE Spring 2026 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange and other enrollment data. 

NAFSA and JB International described the analysis as preliminary, with actual Fall 2026 enrollment outcomes potentially approaching or exceeding the projected decline.

Discover more at New India Abroad.