Mamdani holds strong lead in NYC Mayoral race, poll shows

The survey shows Mamdani with 41.8 percent support, well ahead of former governor Andrew Cuomo at 23.4 percent.

Zohran Mamdani won the New York City Democratic mayoral primary on June 24, 2025 / Vincent Alban/Pool via REUTERS

New York assembly member Zohran Mamdani holds a commanding lead in the New York City mayoral race, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted on Aug. 11 by AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics among 1,376 likely voters, shows Mamdani with 41.8 percent support, well ahead of former governor Andrew Cuomo at 23.4 percent, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa at 16.5 percent, and mayor Eric Adams at 8.8 percent. About 7.9 percent of voters remain undecided.

Also Read: Mamdani holds lead in NYC mayoral race, new poll shows

“Mamdani sits on a hard floor around forty percent but likely to have a firm ceiling below a majority,” said Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics. “In a split field that’s enough to stay ahead. Cuomo has the best path of the challengers … but even in a hypothetical one-on-one, he still trails by double digits.”

The survey tested multiple “drop-out” scenarios, with Mamdani maintaining his lead in every case. In a head-to-head against Cuomo, he holds an 11-point advantage, though nearly 27 percent of voters remain undecided — a bloc dominated by older New Yorkers, split between Democrats and Republicans.

Affordability, housing, and public safety emerged as the top concerns shaping voter sentiment. Beth Finkel, state director of AARP New York, said affordability remains the driving issue. “New Yorkers are telling the candidates loud and clear — show us your plan to make the city livable and affordable, and you’ll earn our vote,” she said, noting that older voters, who historically turn out at the highest rates, are particularly focused on housing and cost of living.

Mamdani has built much of his campaign around affordability, linking policies on housing, transit, and childcare to the broader cost-of-living crisis. He has emphasized rent protections, expanded access to public transit, and measures to reduce household expenses – positioning his candidacy as a response to the financial pressures dominating voter concerns.

The poll also highlights demographic divides: Mamdani draws strong support among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters, as well as a plurality of White non-Hispanic voters. Cuomo performs strongest among Jewish voters, while Sliwa maintains solid backing among Republicans.

Additionally, the poll underscores deep public dissatisfaction with the city’s trajectory: only 9.2 percent of respondents said New York is headed in the right direction, while 52.7 percent believe it is on the wrong track.

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