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A lot of trust has been lost: Experts analyze fallout of U.S.-India oil dispute
Experts on a Columbia University panel discussed how U.S. tariff threats over India’s Russian oil imports could erode trust and reshape alliances.
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Bhavana P - Mon, 18, Aug 2025
- 16:56 EDT
- 16
(L-R) Richard Nephew, Tatiana Mitrova, and Shayak Sengupta. / Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy
The recent U.S. tariff threats against India over its Russian oil imports have severely damaged bilateral trust, experts warned in a Columbia University podcast last week.
On the erosion of the U.S.-India relations, Shayak Sengupta, who leads the India program at Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) warned, “I think there has been a lot of trust that’s been lost and it’s empowered those in New Delhi who have remained skeptical of closer ties between the United States and India over the last 20 to 25 years.”
Sengupta noted that while India and the US grew closer through shared concerns about China, these punitive measures have strengthened India's traditional advocates of strategic autonomy over Western partnerships.
Also read: U.S.-India relationship— A betrayal of shared democratic values?
“But I see that India is going to double down on what has been its traditional tilt and adoption of strategic autonomy, which means not getting too close to any one country and balancing those relationships and kind of defending its interests where it sees fit,” Sengupta added.
The panel featuring former US Deputy Special Envoy for Iran, Richard Nephew, former deputy director general of the National Energy Security Fund in Moscow, Tatiana Mitrova, and Sengupta - analyzed President Trump's August 7 announcement of additional 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods unless New Delhi reduces Russian oil imports. The measures are set to take effect August 27.
Addressing the critical issue of global energy market stability, Mitrova delivered a stark warning about the potential consequences of U.S. pressure on India to abandon Russian oil imports.
“For India it's really important - 35-36% of all its crude imports... Indian refineries are making a lot of money processing this oil and sending refined products primarily to Europe," Mitrova explained, highlighting how India has become an essential energy bridge for Europe after its Russian product bans. "For Russia, it's nearly symmetrical - 38 percent of all Russian oil exports go to India, its second largest buyer after China.”
She further emphasized on India's difficult position as a price-sensitive consumer caught between geopolitical pressures, "Indian demand is very price sensitive, so it might not seem that much for the other markets, but for India it’s also painful. So the choices are between two bad options."
The discussion came just days before the inconclusive U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska. While some expected the tariff threat to pressure Moscow, Nephew raised fundamental concerns about U.S. policy, "Ultimately, I think where this comes back to is, are sanctions still a useful part about putting pressure on Russia to end the war?”
On India’s stance, Sengupta said, “While the government of India has justified these [Russian oil] imports as a way to protect their consumers... a lot of these benefits have not been passed on to the Indian consumer. Indian refiners have largely availed the differential from importing cheaper Russian oil while selling at global prices, because the government controls retail fuel taxes.”
With the tariff deadline looming, experts agreed India faces painful choices between maintaining its strategic autonomy and preserving crucial U.S. trade relations - a dilemma that could reshape global energy alliances.
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