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India’s exports to U.S. slide 28.5% in five months as tariffs hit labour-intensive sectors hardest

Trade experts say that without some corrective action, the current tariff regime could harden into a structural disadvantage for India even as competitors consolidate gains.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are pictured in a mirror as they attend a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025. / REUTERS/Nathan Howard Share

India’s outbound shipments to the United States have slumped sharply over the past five months as steep tariff hikes imposed by Washington rippled through nearly every major export category, from smartphones and textiles to seafood and chemicals. A new assessment by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) shows total exports to the U.S. falling 28.5 percent between May and October 2025—from USD 8.83 billion to USD 6.31 billion—marking one of the steepest short-term declines in recent years for India’s largest overseas market.

The contraction followed a rapid escalation in U.S. import duties: tariffs that were 10 percent in early April jumped to 25 percent in August and reached 50 percent by the end of that month. The sudden rise left Indian exporters facing some of the harshest levy rates globally; by comparison, China faced tariffs of roughly 30 percent and Japan about 15 percent.

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