Sheikh Hasina / IANS

Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's declaration to return to her motherland by December may seem like a brave gamble but insiders in her party see a strategy in the statement made by one of the tallest leaders of the neighbouring country who still enjoys the support of a vast majority of Bangladeshi citizens. 

In an interview that she recently gave to Reuters earlier this month, Hasina said that she has plans to return to Bangladesh by December. "They may arrest me on my return, they may even kill me," she had declared in the interview.

While the statement was viewed as unrealistic by some quarters of intelligentsia in Bangladesh, insiders in Awami League say that their party supremo's message has rejuvenated and galvanized them and given them a hope of political revival.

Hasina's Awami League was banned from contesting elections in Bangladesh despite commanding widespread support across the country and the February 2026 election paved the way for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) which emerged victorious with a super majority of 209 seats as Bangladeshi public voted in favour of a political force over communal forces of the country. 

However, many Bangladeshi political observers pointed out that the BNP won not only anti-Jamaat votes but also the votes that would traditionally go to the Awami League which commanded the support of one-third of the Bangladeshi public in the competitive elections held between 1991 and 2001. 

Bravado, strategy or both?

New India Abroad spoke to several Awami League leaders living in exile in India and western countries including the US and Canada and asked them what they thought about their leader's statement that she would return to Bangladesh by December.

While a section of the party leaders say that they too would like to return to Bangladesh after Hasina's call to them to return to their motherland, it is unclear if the sentiment is shared by all the major faces of the party who continue to live in exile.

But there's one thing that all agree upon: Hasina's declaration has galvanized her party leaders who see a hope of political revival of the party.

"Her statement has definitely rejuvenated the party, the rank and file of the Awami League are happy with the statement. She believes that she has one life and if she has to die, she should die as a hero. Many quarters want to kill her. These include the ISI of Pakistan, the Jamaat-e-Islami and the NCP too. These sections would never want her to return," said a senior Awami League leader staying in exile.
Several Awami League leaders believe that with this statement, Hasina has also put the Tarique Rahman government in a limbo and the Bangladesh Prime Minister is already taking feedback from all political parties of the country on how to deal with a possibility of Hasina's return.

Earlier this week, Rahman hosted a courtesy meeting and dinner for over 150 leaders from 41 allied political parties at Jamuna, the state guest house in Dhaka which marked the first formal gathering of these parties since the formation of the BNP government in Bangladesh.

"The dinner was held to take feedback from the parties on how they viewed the possibility of Hasina's return to Bangladesh. It also shows that Hasina's declaration has united all these anti-Awami League forces," a senior Awami League leader told New India Abroad.

Significantly, insiders are also viewing this as a major test for Tarique Rahman.

"This will be a major test for Tarique Rahman too. If she gets killed upon her return, there will be an outpouring of anger and sympathy which may lead to his government getting toppled. If she is arrested, she would be arrested along with hundreds of thousands of supporters. That will pose another problem,"  the leader said, noting that the BNP leaders have made different statements on possibilities that may emerge upon Hasina's return.  

While BNP senior joint secretary general Ruhul Kabir Rizvi has said that legal proceedings against Hasina were already underway and that it was the court's responsibility to determine her criminal responsibility, NCP convener Nahid Islam has said that Hasina could return to Bangladesh "only to face the execution of her death sentence."

Jamaat secretary general Mia Golam Parwar smelt "an underlying mystery and conspiracy" in Hasina's decision to return to Bangladesh.

On 17 November last year, Sheikh Hasina and former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal were sentenced to death in a case involving crimes against humanity. Several other cases against them are also currently pending.

While Hasina's plans to return to Bangladesh do not stem merely from a hope that it would give her party a hope for political revival, they also show that she is viewing it as a necessity for ensuring the survival of the Awami League.

In her interview to Reuters, Hasina had said that even if she is convicted or barred from contesting elections, the Awami League should not remain banned and according to her, it is the people, not the government, who should decide the party's future.

An close aide of Sheikh Hasina told New India Abroad that Hasina has already held online meetings with party leaders and activists from as many as 138 parliamentary constituencies of Bangladesh.
    
"They want her to return and they will all support her. The people want her back," the aide said.

Hasina had also highlighted the oppression that Awami League supporters have been subjected to after her ouster from Bangladesh.

"Hundreds of our leaders continue to be in jail ever since they were arrested in August 2024. Cases have been filed against most of our top leaders. The leader feels she needs to return for them," said the aide.   

While the BNP's reaction to Hasina's return has been a cautious one, it has made clear that the BNP is alarmed with her plans to return to Bangladesh.

"That Rahman sent a message of unity amongst non-communal forces and urged the anti-fascist alliance partners to stay united shows that they are nervous," another Awami League leader said.   

But will Hasina's call to her party leaders also lead to them returning to Bangladesh as well?

While a section of party leaders have expressed their desire to return home, it is unclear if all the leaders staying in exile wish to return.

A section of Awami League leaders who are financially stable abroad may choose to wait and watch rather than answer her call to return to Bangladesh immediately. 

In Bangladesh, Awami league supporters have been attempting to revive the party too.

They are highly active on social media and their recent plans to hold public programs were met with force with the  army being deployed with magistracy powers. 

The Bangladeshi press has also noted that Hasina still enjoys widespread support amongst the public and questioned if the Jamaat-e-Islami lacked confidence in its own strength and capability citing the party's intentions to keep the Awami League -supported candidates away from the local government polls to be held in Bangladesh.

The Jamaat-e-Islami has called for the inclusion of a provision that would disqualify any officeholder or active member of a political party whose activities have been banned by the government from participating in local government elections.

Commenting on this, an editorial in leading Bangladeshi news platform Prothom Alo states: 

"If the Awami League is truly such a bad party, if the allegations that it deceived the people and the country and pushed the nation toward bankruptcy are true, why not leave the responsibility of proving these claims to the voters? If Awami League-affiliated candidates fail to receive votes in local government elections, or receive very few votes, then we can say that the people of the country have rejected the party. What is the difficulty in allowing that to happen? What other justification can there be for keeping those who carry the “stigma” of the Awami League out of elections as “independent candidates,” unless they are considered serious political competitors? Does Jamaat-e-Islami lack confidence in its own strength and capability? Does it believe that Awami League remains more popular than itself and that it fears facing Awami League candidates in an election?"

Insiders say that whether all senior party leaders join her or not, Hasina may execute her plans to return to Bangladesh and seems to have already weighed in the options before her.

"After making such an announcement, if she doesn't return. That too, will send a bad message but knowing the kind of leader she is. It is possible that she would do what she has said," an Awami League leader mentioned above said.  

Discover more at New India Abroad.